Politics is the struggle for power and influence. Political opposition is a pillar of democracy. The more you look at party politics in Nigeria, the less you see viable opposition. This truism is what is playing out ahead of the 2027 general election. Defection is another name for politics without ideology. Defection is the new normal usually done based on the parochial interest of the political actors.
Tinubu, the Master Strategist
Tinubu is no doubt a political strategist and one of the most experienced politicians in the history of Nigeria who has played a vital role in local, regional, and national politics for over three decades. The reason for overheating the polity is that it is targeted at preventing more defections out of the ruling APC.
Hence, the politics of the PDP Governor's defection would rattle the opposition coalition ahead of 2027 on the next move of PBAT political calculations.
PDP is in Disarray
As usual, the PDP Governor's forum diverged from the other key stakeholders of the party on how to plan and execute the 2027 political game plan. PDP as a party has lost the counsel of former Presidents Obasanjo and Babangida on how to resolve internal wranglings. The lack of internal party democracy and the founding fathers of the party's relegation to the background are Problems of PDP in its internal crisis on leadership and 2027 projects.
Reasons Why PDP Remains Divided
The zoning formula in the PDP has kept the party stakeholders divided since 2011. The 14 years enjoyed by the South (OBJ & GEJ tenures) were contrasted by the two and half years of late President Yar'adua. By this fact, the next presidential candidate must come from the North despite Atiku's unsuccessful attempts in 2019 and 2023. The contradiction is that the Southern part of Nigeria claims to have more PDP supporters and governors compared to the fewer members of the North. This is the situation in the PDP. There are three groups in PDP now. First, the Governor's forum group led by Gov. Bala Mohammed. The second is the topnotchers group led by Atiku Abubakar. The most troubling group is headed by Hon. Nyeson Wike, who are tagged the rebels for reform. From this situational analysis, the PDP is sharply divided within. The condition makes the road to 2027 very difficult and unclear.
2027: Coalition or Merger?
If it is a merger, we need to see the signpost and machinations playing out. The coalition is having the major key stakeholders like governors sidelined. The opposition parties are disconnected from their members, not playing their supposed roles. For instance in the PDP, who became the presidential candidate in 2027, has put the party against itself for the factions within. The 2027 presidential candidate has created perceived enemies, factions, and moles in the PDP. The Atiku coalition with El-Rufa'i and Obi is still premature. It is alleged that more governors from PDP will join the APC sooner or later.
Implications of high politics on governance
Overheating the polity with defections will divert government attention at both federal and state levels. It would consume more resources, heighten insecurity, effectively, undermine corruption fights, and may likely lead to bad governance.
Who Wins the Political Game?
Both PBAT and opposition parties have the advantage of knowing the key players against them and are planning on how to handle them. The opposition is very inactive as of now. PBAT has one year to improve its popularity rating and policies for him to be easily saleable, while the opposition has the opportunity to plan and look for a better candidate that will wrestle power from APC.
Defections, Dangers and Puzzles for 2027
The trend as it is now, the big picture, is that in the long run, the country will be divided by regional political divides of North vs South and, more so, tribal parochialism.
Isa Mohammed, PhD
24th April, 2025.
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